February 1, 2008

Tomorrow's attack ads today

There's an interesting new Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll [pdf] on the presidential campaign today. Slate spotlights the fact that in head-to-head match ups, "Both Clinton and Obama were in a dead heat with McCain at about 45 percent, while both topped Romney by roughly 15 points." I said just yesterday that McCain is the stronger candidate against Clinton, but I also said that either Republican would be able to beat her. Does this poll change my mind? No, and a few of the other results in it explain why.

So far, Republicans have been refraining from really attacking either Clinton or Obama (Obama because they think Clinton is going to win the primary and Clinton because they want to make sure she does). But after the primaries, the gloves come off against either candidate, and several questions in this poll make it clear that Clinton is the far more vulnerable target.

"Which presidential candidate do you think is more likely to do anything -- including something unethical -- to win the election?"
Clinton 44%, Romney 11%, McCain 9%, Obama 8%

"Regardless of how you plan to vote, which presidential candidate do you think is most likely to do something that would embarrass the country?"
Clinton 37%, Romney 14%, McCain 12%, Obama 11%

"Regardless of how you plan to vote, which presidential candidate do you think is the most positive?"
Obama 36%, Clinton 22%, McCain 18%, Romney 11%

Interestingly, this does not seem to be about any visceral dislike of Clinton.
"Which one of the following candidates would you MOST want to watch on television for four years?"
Clinton 25%, Obama 25%, McCain 19%, Romney 12%

There's also a few questions in there indicating that Bill Clinton could continue to be trouble. 58% say Hillary should be responsible for what he says and does on the campaign trail; 31% say they expect the Clintons to have a "co-presidency" (up from 10% in November), and 66% say that if Hillary "difficult foreign policy situation with a world leader" as president, they'd expect Bill to "jump in and defend her the way he has been doing on the campaign trail." And in case you were wondering why that's a bad sign, when asked who benefited from Bill's jumping in and defending Hillary in South Carolina, 32% said Obama did, and 30% said the Republicans did. Only 12% thought he actually helped her.

Look for a lot of red-faced-Bill ads if Hillary gets the nomination.

Posted by Daniel Radosh


"Does this poll change my mind? No. Let me explain."

If Clinton wins the nomination, McCain will kick her ass since so many Dems (not to mention every single Repub) hate her. Clinton and McCain are essentially one and the same, except Billary's balls are slimier.

Post a comment

Powered by
Movable Type 3.2