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January 19, 2004

Regular readers of this site

Daniel Radosh

Regular readers of this site (are there such things?) will recall that I'm a fan of using markets to predict future events (if not to fairly distribute wealth). So while the pundits do their pundit thing -- declaring the Iowa race to be tightening at the last minute -- "up for grabs," even -- just so they have something to talk about -- I'll simply note that the Iowa Electronic Markets, the granddaddy of predictive markets, still has Howard Dean by a comfortable margin (41% to Kerry's 35.5%, though Kerry's bids did surge over the last day). I promise to apologize to pundits and pollsters everywhere if their predictions turn out to be more accurate.

Not that I have a dog in this fight. I'm voting National Barking Spider Resurgence Party

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